See the future of your production assets with the Forecasting workflow for the One Virtual Source platform. This interactive tool combines decline curve analysis (DCA) and cumulative rate analysis (CRA) into one program that conveniently works alongside other OVS workflows—such as Uplift Analysis or Well Performance Analysis. It allows you to:
- Manipulate and analyze trends in production decline using live connections to your production data sources
- Easily evaluate production history and estimate recovery for your field
- Automatically integrate results into your operational data or your reserves and economic systems
- Link to other programs and workflows in One Virtual Source to become more productive
Using DCA and CRA together improves the accuracy of recovery estimations. For conventional wells, DCA and CRA will complement each other, creating an expected range of recoverable volume. In instances where Arps decline falls short, such as with wells driven by water injection or secondary recovery methods, estimates using CRA prove to be much more reliable. With that in mind, Forecasting can be configured to prioritize certain forecasting methods depending on completion type or drive mechanism.
You can also configure the workflow to extrapolate forecast curves automatically, or manually manipulate them yourself to predict the impact of expected production schedule changes like shut-ins or workovers. Save time by saving templates for specific scenarios; deploy them to rapidly build forecast curves. Categorize wells by quality of fit so you can hone in on the wells that need the most attention.
Outputs from Forecasting work well as inputs for other forecast-building tools, like your favorite economic evaluation system. Automatically input the official reserves forecasts from your record systems to compare to forecasts generated within the workflow. You can include these new forecasts in future reserves evaluation. Additionally, since Forecasting works within the One Virtual Source Platform, migrating analyses for use in other OVS workflows like Production Data Analytics is a simple process.
The Forecasting workflow allows for large portions of the organization to generate useful forecasts outside of the reserves process. Traditional forecasting and economic systems require significant training to use. Companies typically keep them tightly controlled because they are tied to the company’s full reserve reporting system. With Forecasting, operations teams can create and manipulate forecasts without needing to run a full economic system, reducing the need for extra training. Operations teams might also use Forecasting to quickly perform feasibility studies to evaluate the expected outcomes of potential field improvements.
Forecasting is also utilized in One Virtual Source’s exception-based alert system. Reservoir and production engineers will be instantly notified when well tests or daily production begin trending below forecasts, allowing engineers to intervene, minimizing lost production.
To run Forecasting, the workflow requires a data source for fluid production rates and cumulative fluid volumes. These rates and cumulatives can be monthly or daily, depending on the source and needs of the user. The data connection is made through the One Virtual Source platform. Users may need to input more information depending on the desired specificity of the forecast, as listed below. The program assumes or ignores values not provided.
Optional User Inputs for Forecasts:
- Start & end dates
- Initial rate value for forecast
- Arps “b” value
- Annual effective decline percentage
- Minimum rate to switch from hyperbolic decline to exponential decline
- Economic limit
- Schedule maximum cumulative volume to be produced.
Custom CRA templates will also have to be configured by the user, and any data the templates use will have to be connected through One Virtual Source.